Home
/
RELIGION & LIBERTY ONLINE
/
‘Win-win denial’: The roots of zero-sum thinking
‘Win-win denial’: The roots of zero-sum thinking
Jan 28, 2026 4:14 AM

A new study shows that zero-sum thinking is pervasive across society, with roots in the ways we tend to think about our neighbors and the economy.

Read More…

One of the basic insights of economics is that trade is mutually beneficial, making both parties better off than they were before. It’s a proposition about human exchange that stretches back to Adam Smith’s foundational treatise, “The Wealth of Nations.”

“Man has almost constant occasion for the help of his brethren, and it is in vain for him to expect it from their benevolence only,” Smith wrote in 1776. “He will be far more likely to prevail if he can interest their self-love in his favour, and show them that it is for their own advantage to do for him what he requires of them. Whoever offers to another a bargain of any kind, proposes to do this.”

The abounding growth of our global economy underscores this truth, showing how trade turns work into fellowship, as well as fellowship into flourishing. Among economists, there is almost universal agreement on the matter, whether one looks to free-marketers like Milton Friedman or welfare-state liberals like Paul Krugman.

Yet, somehow, a contradictory myth continues to persist and pervade, one which frames economic exchange as a zero-sum game wherein one person’s gain is necessarily another person’s loss. In “The Good Society,” Acton’s educational film series, Michael Miller explains the fallacy as follows:

“One of the mistakes we often make when we think about trade is to view it as a win-lose proposition, instead of mutually beneficial. This is the idea that success can e at the expense of others; for every winner, there must be a loser. This is the fallacy called the “zero-sum game,” where we imagine the economy as a pie, and if one person has a bigger piece, that leaves a smaller piece for someone else.”

“…The problem with the zero-sum game is that it fails to acknowledge the mutual benefit of trade and that the pie can grow. As productivity increases, or as new innovations and inventions take off, the pie can expand. This means that everyone’s share can get bigger, and this is what we call economic growth.”

So, if the evidence of such growth is clear, and if the academic consensus clearly corresponds, why does zero-sum thinking continue to thrive among non-economists?

It’s a question at the center of a new study in which researchers Samuel G.B. Johnson, Jiewen Zhang, and Frank C. Keil explore the psychological roots of what they call “win-win denial.” For whatever reason, zero-sum thinking “appears to be endemic in people’s thinking about economic matters,” the authors write, whether applied to day-to-day transactions at the grocery store or voting choices on matters of public policy.

Drawing from a range of previous research, the authors highlight how far the phenomenon truly reaches, pointing to something persistent in the human psyche:

“Laypeople tend to believe that more panies are less socially responsible, when the true correlation is just the opposite. Negotiators often perceive themselves as carving up a “fixed pie,” decreasing the chances of a successful e. People believe that the government cannot benefit one group without harming another and are particularly inclined to think in zero-sum ways about international trade and immigration.

“But zero-sum thinking also seems to be psychologically natural, occurring across many countries and political orientations, though manifesting differently among liberals and conservatives. Zero-sum thinking has been noted in numerous settings (albeit not always fallaciously), including students’ thinking about grades, reasoners’ thinking about evidence, consumers’ thinking about product features, and even couples’ thinking about love.”

The study is centered around four separate experiments, wherein participants were asked to offer value judgments about specific consumer-driven trades (e.g., “Sally purchasing a shirt from Tony’s store”). In each case, participants were ultimately asked “whether each party to the transaction was better off or worse off afterwards.” The conclusion?

“These studies revealed that win-win denial is pervasive, with buyers consistently seen as less likely to benefit from transactions than sellers,” the authors concluded. “… Overall, the overwhelming majority of participants claimed that at least some of the parties did not benefit from one or more exchanges.”

To understand why, the authors weigh several possibilities, concluding that much of it can be explained by specific psychological mechanisms.

First, it appears as though many people give way to “mercantilist theories of monly confusing wealth for money:

“Across all studies buyers were consistently seen as less likely to benefit from exchange than sellers, and barters were often seen as not benefitting either party. This is consistent with intuitive mercantilism—the idea that a person’s welfare is determined by their monetary wealth, not by mand of useful goods and services. Perceived benefit flows with currency, so that sellers are seen as better-off, buyers as worse-off, and traders as experiencing no change. Despite perennial attempts to conquer mercantilist thinking by economists, this sort of thinking may be so cognitively natural that even extensive economics education does not stamp it out. In our experiments, mercantilist thinking also manifested in a smaller degree of win–win denial when payments were described in terms of time rather than money.”

Second, many tend to project their own personal preferences and notions of value onto others, “failing to observe that people do not arbitrarily enter exchanges”:

“Win–win denial seems to be exacerbated by issues in our theory of mind. Specifically, people are naïve realists, making a perspective-taking error in which they interpret their own preferences as ground truth, neglecting that others have different preferences and reasons for their actions. Merely reminding people that the buyers and traders had reasons for their choices (even empty reasons such as “Mary wanted the chocolate bar”) reduced the incidence of win–win denial… Making the preference of buyers and traders more salient reduced win–win denial, as did asking participants to rate the parties’ perceived gain or loss. Together, these results suggest that people do not spontaneously reflect on the fact that parties to exchanges have reasons for their behavior, leading them to discount potential gains from trade.”

The study considers other possibilities as well (“evolutionary mismatch,” confusion over bargain quality, etc.). But while some of these may play some role, each is ruled out as a root cause. And yet, as the authors conclude, there is still so much left to explore.

For example, how do breakdowns in social trust alter our subconscious beliefs about sellers, businesses, and other economic institutions? Do our suspicions about exploitation or generosity correspond with different seasons of economic crises or prosperity? Does the more recent bureaucratization of big business breed more cynicism about where “value” ultimately resides and who determines what? Or what mon attitudes toward our fellow buyers? mon is it for us to distrust our neighbors’ ability to know their best interests? Do these same findings apply to other areas beyond economic policy? Does a similar zero-sum bias exist at the heart of anti-immigrant sentiment, for example?

This study offers just one introductory glimpse into the roots of such thinking, but in doing so, it reminds us that mon disputes over economic issues are rooted in deeper attitudes about the human person and the basic nature of human relationships in economic life (and beyond). As Acton’s PovertyCure primer states:

“The zero-sum fallacy is rooted in a pessimistic and, often materialistic, view of human beings as consumers. But a view enriched by economic history and theology positions human persons not merely as mouths devouring the Earth’s resources, but as productive gardeners and sub-creators imprinted with God’s divine creative spark.

“While God alone can createex nihilo,Scripture reveals to us with clarity our responsibility to participate in the creative process of cultivating His garden bringing forth from itnewfruits. ‘Be fruitful,’ God says to Adam.”

We need not be experts in economics to resist and counter the win-win denial of our age. Instead, we can embrace and promote a view of creation and human creators that is marked by a faith in abundance, not cynicism and scarcity.

Far from viewing ourselves bative actors in a zero-sum struggle — buyers vs. sellers, employees vs. employers — we can reimagine our work in the global economy as creators and servants, collaborators and contributors, working together with our neighbors to paint a grand picture of God’s abundance and harmony in society.

Comments
Welcome to mreligion comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
RELIGION & LIBERTY ONLINE
6 policies that lead a nation from poverty to prosperity
Why have nations like Hong Kong and Singapore risen to e global economic powerhouses, while resource-rich African nations remain mired in poverty? Abir Doumit, an economist at George Mason University, has identified six pillars capable of lifting a nation to prosperity, no matter where it starts. One of the most important is a small government. “If sustainable economic growth is the goal, there is no substitute for an overall policy agenda of a small state, open markets, stable money, property...
New film on Armenian Genocide strikes the right balance
Go see The Promise, a movie opening nationwide tomorrow. Hollywood has mostly ignored the Armenian genocide perpetrated by the Ottoman Turks during World War I, and subsequently pursued by the Turkish Republic. At last we have a film like The Promise, which focuses on the Armenian experience, but also the Greeks and Assyrians who were brutally victimized. There is no uglier word in any language than genocide, which is perhaps why the word is used so sparingly. Both denotatively and...
Why Walmart is one of America’s great anti-poverty institutions
It’s an exaggeration to claim, asJohn Tierney does in the latest issue of City Journal, that “no institution or agency has done more to help the poor than Walmart.” After all,the Christian church has certainly done more. I’d even argue that in America individual subsets of the church, such as the Catholic Church and the Southern Baptist Convention, have even done more. But onthe short-list of anti-poverty institutionsthat have done the most forthe poor, Walmart certainly ranks high. Tierney points...
‘What Good Markets Are Good For’
As of this month, I have joined the “What Good Markets Are Good For: Towards a Moral Justification of Free Markets” project as a postdoctoral researcher in theology and economics. The project is a multi-year, multifaceted endeavor, focusing on the central claim that “societies with free-market economies flourish because and in so far as the key market actors (states, businesses and individuals) respect morality, and act virtuously.” The project is headed by Govert Buijs at the VU UniversityAmsterdam, and includes...
Acton books distributed to schools by Theological Book Network
The Acton Institute recently donated a number of titles on faith, work, and economics to the Theological Book Network which will distribute them to its partner institutions in what it calls the ‘Majority World’ (‘Majority World’ is a term coined to replace earlier sometimes anachronistic or misleading terms like ‘Third World’ or ‘Developing World’). The Theological Book Network is a Grand Rapids based non-profit, mitted to the creation and development of Majority World leaders by providing access to educational resources...
Humans care about economic fairness, not economic inequality
A new study published in the science journal Nature Human Behaviour finds that in most situation people are unconcerned about economic inequality as long as distributions of wealth are fair: There is immense concern about economic inequality, both among the munity and in the general public, and many insist that equality is an important social goal. However, when people are asked about the ideal distribution of wealth in their country, they actually prefer unequal societies. We suggest that these two...
Explainer: What you should know about Earth Day?
What is Earth Day? Earth Day is an annual event, celebrated on April 22, on which events are held worldwide to demonstrate support for environmental protection. It was first celebrated in 1970, the anniversary of what many consider the birth of the modern environmental movement. How did Earth Day get started? Earth Day was started by Gaylord Nelson, a U.S. Senator from Wisconsin. Nelson originally tried to bring political attention to environmental issues in 1962-63, when he convinced President Kennedy...
What you need to know about the French presidential election on April 23
This Sunday, April 23, French voters will go to the polls for the first round of their presidential election. If no candidate receives 50 percent of the vote, the top two vote-getters will face each other in a runoff election on May 7. Here’s what you need to know: Who are the candidates? In alphabetical order, the candidates are: François Fillon: The 63-year-old candidate of the center-Right Les Républicains served as prime minister of France from 2007 to 2012 under...
Marine Le Pen’s economics unite populist Right and far-Left
Emmanuel Macron may have won the first round of the French presidential elections on Sunday, but Marine Le Pen won a political victory of her own. The statist undercurrent running through her nationalist and populist policies successfully bridged the gap between France’s “far-Right” and socialist Left, according to Marco Respinti in a new essay for Religion & Liberty Transatlantic. Mainstream French politicians have sought bine disparate ideological strands since at least Charles de Gaulle, who presented his foreign policy as...
Samuel Gregg on the fracturing of France
With the first round of the French election results in, and no major candidates even managing to get a quarter of the total votes, two candidates remain: Marine Le Pen of the National Front, a populist and nationalist party, and Emmanuel Macron, the center-Left candidate of the “En Marche!” (“On Our Way”) political party. Samuel Gregg covers the current politically disjointed state of Francein a new article for First Things. He maintains an attitude of skepticism and uncertainty towards France’s...
Related Classification
Copyright 2023-2026 - www.mreligion.com All Rights Reserved