Home
/
RELIGION & LIBERTY ONLINE
/
The surprising, economic reason 157,000 British children were never born
The surprising, economic reason 157,000 British children were never born
Sep 11, 2025 5:49 PM

Students of the free market say that economics is merely human action. Economists also understand that policies have unintended consequences – such as reducing the number of children born in a nation. The Adam Smith Institute, based in London, has released a new report describing one such consequence due, in part, to central planning and overregulation.

The British housing crisis has inadvertently discouraged women from having 157,000 children, its report finds. Young couples in the UK increasingly struggle to afford a home of their own. The average price of a home in London has increased from £55,000 in 1986 to £492,000 today (approximately $71,800 to $642,250 U.S.). While that is due in part to urbanization, the ASI notes that some government policies artificially reduce the supply even as demand rises.

The new ASI study found that rising housing prices increased fertility for homeowners but decreased birthrates among those who rent. While the former is more confident in its economic future, the latter is struggling to save up for a home. Higher prices require higher deposits. In the meantime, the housing that couples can afford may not be large enough to modate all the children they wish to have.

ASI’s analysis found that “a 10% rise in house prices resulted in 4.9% decrease in births amongst renters and a 2.8% increase in births amongst home owners over the whole 18-year time period [1996 to 2014]. The net effect is a 1.3% decrease in births over the entire period, equating to approximately 157,000 missing children.”

Unfortunately, “in the ten years between 2004 and 2014 homeownership fell from 60% to 35% among 25-34 year olds – the key childbearing demographic,” the report, written by Andrew Sabisky, notes.

While careful to stipulate that child-bearing decisions are not exclusively, or even primarily, economic, they state that family size is driven in part by financial considerations. “When weighing the decision as to whether or not to have another [child], parents who simply cannot afford to do so will often not, no matter how much they might want another baby for other reasons.”

As newborns e more scarce, the average age creeps upward, and the number of Brits aged 85 and older will more than double in the next 18 years.

While a highly regulated-and-subsidized housing market discourages some Brits from having children, that population drop will further undermine the British economy. Any decrease in population levels exerts significant economic pressures on a nation with an old-age pension system like the UK (or the U.S.):

Lower mortality and fertility rates imply a rise in the dependency ratio (the ratio of non-workers to workers). The consequences for public finances are obvious. 55% of welfare spending currently goes to pensioners (as of 2014/15). In an ageing population this number is likely to rise even further. As of 2014 there were 3.2 working-age people for every pensioner; by 2037 this number is projected to fall to 2.7 (House of Commons Library, 2015). The rise in the numbers of very old people – as discussed above – presents an additional burden. The average 85 year old is estimated to cost the NHS three times as much as the average 65-74 year old (House of Commons Library, 2015).

The housing trend illustrated by ASI exacerbates an already contracting population. The UK’s total fertility rate (TFR) has not met the replacement level since 1972. Sadly, as ASI notes, “by European standards, the UK’s TFR (1.82) is quite impressive.” The British birthrate exceeds that of Germany (1.5), Italy (1.35), or Spain (1.33). Slightly more fertile European nations still fall short of replacement levels; the closest is France at 1.96. These rates track rather closely with the Heritage Foundation’s Index of Economic Freedom and the Fraser Institute’s Economic Freedom map.

This is a salient fact: Market economies produce enough goods for young people who are so inclined to support more children. The world is incalculably richer for their fecundity. “Every human creature who is born on earth is the ‘sign’ par excellence of the Creator and Father who is in Heaven,” said Pope Benedict XVI in 2010.

Those economies that reject the market have the opposite effect. After Bolivarian populist socialism plunged Venezuela into the depths of recession, many of the nation’s women had themselves voluntarilysterilized.Similarly, a 2014 Princeton study found that 426,850 Americans will never be born because women chose not to have children after experiencing the Great Recession and thestatist policies that slowed the recovery. Finally, according to the Guttmacher Institute, nearly three-quarters of women who seek an abortion say they “can’t afford a baby right now.” Economic opportunity has profound human consequences.

“Our governments must learn to construct policies that do not accidentally have the side effect of making it harder to have children,” ASI states. Government limits on the design and height of plexes have capped the number of apartments available. Allowing development on 3.7 percent of London’s Green Belt would create a million new homes, ASI estimated in a previous study. Loosening other regulatory restrictions and reducing or abolishing taxes would also bring down housing costs. You can read ASI’s new report here. A previous summary of ASI’s housing policy proposals may be found here.

Any parent can attest that no amount of economic security will make someone feel adequately prepared to care for a child. And one ought not view human beings as economic goods; human dignity is parably higher than private budgetary issues.

However, history and human nature make clear to us that economic concerns will intrude upon even the most intimate questions of life and death. Therefore, those who affirm the intrinsic value of human life should be concerned to promote a market environment that provides hope, growth, and opportunity for all its citizens – and their posterity.

Williamson. This photo has been cropped. CC BY 2.0.)

Comments
Welcome to mreligion comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
RELIGION & LIBERTY ONLINE
The moral imperative of our time?
In his “Bad Economics, Bad Public Policy and Bad Theology,” columnist Raymond Keating makes the case on OrthodoxyToday.org that the Religious Left offers “assorted biblical passages that speak of aiding the poor, the necessity for charity and justice, or other vague generalities, and then simply assert that these quotations support the particulars of their big government philosophy. Of course, this ranks as either ignorant or disingenuous from a theological standpoint.” Keating examines resurgent activism by liberal/leftist religious leaders on environmental...
Game review: Food Force
The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) has found a new way to get the word out about its efforts. Food Force is a free downloadable video game (for the PC and Mac) designed by the WFP, in which the users will “Play the game, learn about food aid, and help WFP work towards a world without hunger.” Within the context of the fictional nation of Sheylan, the player embarks on a series of missions intended to give users a...
Old Europe’s new despotism
Noting the celebration of the 200th anniversary of the birth of Alexis de Tocqueville, Samuel Gregg analyzes the current situation in Europe. “Tocqueville’s vision of ‘soft-despotism’ is thus one of arrangements that mutually corrupt citizens and the democratic state,” and clear signs of this ‘soft-despotism’ are emerging, contends Gregg. Read the full text here. ...
NYT freak show
A New York Times editorial today argues that spreading concerns about the ethical validity of chimeras (human-animal hybrids) are unfounded. Here is a summary of the argument: 1) Strange and disturbing possibilities are more like science-fiction than real science. These “should not distract us from ing more mundane experiments with chimeras that will be needed to advance science.” 2) This is just the next logical progression. There’s no real substantive difference between transplanting organs or tissues and splicing genes. 3)...
‘Kyoto is Doomed’
Iain Murray at Tech Central Station writes that the EU is going to have a lot of trouble meeting its obligations under the Kyoto Protocol, and this could have disastrous economic effects. He writes of recent statements from Spanish officials: This is a clear indication that at least one government has realized that Kyoto brings a severe economic cost with it, contrary to the protestations of the European Commission and Kyoto boosters around the world. Murray concludes, “The reality, then,...
Review Acton books
Interested in reading and reviewing various publications for your blog? Head on over to Mind & Media, a blog-based book reviewing service. The Acton Institute has placed three titles from the Lexington Books Studies in Ethics & Economics series, edited by Acton director of research Samuel Gregg. One of the books is Within the Market Strife: American Catholic Economic Thought from Rerum Novarum to Vatican II, by Acton research fellow Kevin Schmiesing. e a reviewer ...
‘Hokey Religions and Ancient Weapons’
This es from Han Solo, which pretty well sums up his critique of Jedi knights in the Star Wars saga, “Hokey religions and ancient weapons are no match for a good blaster at your side.” I also wonder whether it might be apt in describing the sometimes contemptuous relationship between scientific progress and religion (Christianity in particular), as the guiding pragmatic ethos of naturalism wars against orthodox Christian belief. Forbes has posted a slideshow giving reviews of the various technologies...
Academic editorializing
The Telegraph reports that there is growing dissent among the ranks of some scientists, whose dissenting viewpoint is unable to find a place in many major academic journals. According to the story, Two of the world’s leading scientific journals e under fire from researchers for refusing to publish papers which challenge fashionable wisdom over global warming. … The controversy follows the publication by Science in December of a paper which claimed to have plete agreement among climate experts, not only...
Mistaken mastectomy
According to the AP, Molly Akers has filed a lawsuit against the University of Chicago Hospitals, seeking more than $200,000 in damages for the pain, suffering and lost wages she suffered when her healthy right breast was surgically removed. The mistake was the result of a lab mix-up, and in a statement released on NBC’s Today Show, the hospital expressed regret for the mistake. Akers’ lawyer, Bob Clifford, is using the case as an opportunity to speak against proposed tort...
Big story on small loans
Today’s Christian Science Monitor has a story on the increasing use of micro-loans by Christian aid and development groups. According to the story, “Religious organizations are increasingly adopting the Talmudic sentiment that the noblest form of charity is helping others to dispense with it.” Ron Sider, in the twentieth anniversary edition of his book, Rich Christians in an Age of Hunger, strongly endorses the use of micro-loans as a means of getting desperately needed capital to those who need it...
Related Classification
Copyright 2023-2025 - www.mreligion.com All Rights Reserved