Home
/
RELIGION & LIBERTY ONLINE
/
The new political divide pits conservatives against liberals and populists
The new political divide pits conservatives against liberals and populists
Oct 15, 2026 2:39 PM

The election of 2016 highlighted how politically divided we are as a nation. But the dividing line may not be where we had assumed.

For the past few decades the electorate has been viewed as divided almost equally between social and economic conservatives and social and economic liberals. But a recent study of voting patterns in the 2016 election reveals the old left-right divide is fractured and voters are clustered into four main groups.

The first group prised of Liberals, who are liberal on both economic and identity issues. At 44.6 percent, prise the largest voting demographic.

The second group is made up of Populists, people who are liberal on economic issues and conservative on identity issues. They are 28.9 percent of the population.

The third group is Conservatives, those who are conservative on both economic and identity issues. They are not only much smaller than the Liberals but even smaller than the Populists, making up only 22.7 percent of voters.

Finally, there are the Libertarians, who are conservative on economic issues and liberal on identity issues. prise a mere 3.8 percent of voters.

This scatterplot below shows how these groups aligned in the 2016 electorate.

Not surprisingly, Clinton voters are consistently liberal on both economic and identity issues. But notice that Trump voters are less conservative on identity issues than Clinton voters are liberal. And while Trump voters are clustered around the center-right on economic issues, few are strongly conservative on economics—and many are economically liberal.

Clinton won the majority of Liberals, while Trump won almost all of the Conservatives. But Trump also won 6.3 percent of the Liberal vote and gained the edge in winning over the Populists. Trump beat Clinton by about a 3-to-1 margin among the populists. Clinton won only 5.7 percent of the Populist vote, barely beating out the 4.3 percent of populists who supported third party candidates.

(Libertarians split almost equally between Clinton, Trump, and third party candidates like Johnson, proving that Liberaltarians do exist.)

So how did Trump win? As the report notes, largely by winning over the Populists—liberal on economic issues, conservative on identity issues—who had previously voted for Obama (about 8 percent of Populists had voted for Obama in 2012) or who had supported neither Obama nor Romney in 2012.

He also resonated with those who supported economically liberal positions—which now is the majority of the Republican party. If we look at primary voters, we find that Republicans—even Ted Cruz voters—were to the left of Clinton voters on attitudes about foreign trade. Trump voters were also to the left of every candidate but Kasich on economic inequality.

What does this portend for the GOP? As the report notes,

Republicans are about equally divided between economically liberal populists and more free-market-oriented conservatives. Republican primaries revealed a Kasich faction that is consistently more moderate across issues, a Trump faction that is more liberal on economic issues but more conservative on identity issues, and a Cruz faction that is more free market on economic issues and particularly conservative on moral issues.

[…]

Since Republicans have picked up more economically liberal voters (and may continue to do so since there are still some populists who vote for Democrats), it may be harder for Republicans to continue to push a traditional conservative free-market agenda.

As these results show, free market advocates pletely e in the Democratic Party and increasingly ing a minority within the GOP. If we don’t find a way to shift the tide soon we advocates of economic freedom may find ourselves caught between Populist and Liberals as they fight about what sort of socialism we’ll be forced to accept.

Comments
Welcome to mreligion comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
RELIGION & LIBERTY ONLINE
China and Russia don’t know why they were excluded from the “Summit for Democracy”
Should you tell them or should I? Read More… Presidential summits tend to focus on PR rather than substance. The Biden administration’s “Summit for Democracy” looks no different. Its objectives were worthy. Asthe State Departmentexplained it, President Joe Biden planned to “bring together leaders from government, civil society, and the private sector to set forth an affirmative agenda for democratic renewal and to tackle the greatest threats faced by democracies today through collective action.” However, most of the topics probably...
Advent lifts the veil of judgment and mercy in the divine economy
Christians in the marketplace are motivated by more than profit. They seek also to be worthy of the public trust so as to avoid divine judgment. Read More… One of the more disturbing aspects of the way the market economy works is the ability of, at least some, participants to avoid responsibility for their decisions and actions. The manner in which this works is through the concepts of corporate personality and limited liability. The corporation is deemed to have a...
This Advent, the Christmas child calls you and me
Mary’s call and response is a powerful reminder of how Advent calls us to model her in humble obedience and service, whatever our vocation. Read More… We arrive at the Christmas stable. We have prepared. The Christ child e to us—Immanuel. We begin by taking a step back. The candle that is lit for the final Sunday of Advent reminds us of Mary, the one who brings the Lord into the world. The Protestant Reformers reacted against Catholic overemphasis on...
The American family needs a Miracle on 34th Street now
The ultimate Christmas classic has proved over time to be both prophetic and bitterly realistic. Read More… My Christmas movies series has hitherto considered church (The Bishop’s Wife), work (The Shop Around the Corner), and family (Christmas in Connecticut), munities that constitute America. I’ll conclude with the most famous American Christmas fairy tale of all, Miracle on 34th Street (1947), in which merce, and even marriage are all in trouble, as they are today. The story is straightforward but unpredictable:...
Hong Kong drops 62 places in “press freedom” by country
The effects of the National Security Law are being felt by journalists in Hong Kong, as the city suffers a terrible slide into a totalist state to match China’s. Read More… Reporters Without Borders (RSF) released this year’s World Press Freedom Index, ranking countries based on press freedom, from the most to the least press. In 2002, for example, Hong Kong was ranked 18th. This year, it fell to 80th out of 180 countries, while China landed at #177, only...
Christmas in Connecticut: the holiday movie that promises you can’t have it all
Can a cynical newspaperwoman and a WWII vet live happily ever after a PR stunt? Read More… I continue my series on old Hollywood Christmas movies. After a movie about church as munity, The Bishop’s Wife(1947), and the workplace as munity, The Shop Around the Corner (1940), I turn to a movie about family, the smallest but most munity: Christmas in Connecticut (1945), starring Barbara Stanwyck, one of the great Hollywood stars, Sydney Greenstreet (the Fat Man from The Maltese...
Take recent polls about COVID hastening the demise of American religion with a grain of salt
Recent polls suggest church attendance and religious affiliation are declining at an even faster pace than before. But who exactly is answering these poll questions, and how do they understand them? Read More… The latest Pew Research Center survey on American religion reflects a familiar trend in recent years: declining levels of Christian affiliation and growing numbers of religiously unaffiliated (the “nones”). Almost 30% of those surveyed told Pew that they identify with no particular pared to 16% in 2007....
The University of Austin is scaring all the right people
Whether the new university “dedicated to the unfettered pursuit of truth” will succeed is anyone’s guess. The real issue is why so many are trashing it before it even starts. Read More… Conservatives tend to be skeptical of the uses of the word diversity, but they love variety. They believe that American higher education is better when you have a rich choice among schools—uniformity being a feature of progressive ideologies—that each has a particular mission and identity. Such variety serves...
Inflation is real and we’re experiencing the costs and consequences
Don’t believe that increasing the money supply or jacking up federal spending costs nothing. Blaming corporate greed for rising prices is just a diversion from poor economic policy. Read More… Generally, the topic of inflation is considered dry and uninteresting, but it is one that has garnered much attention and debate over the past year. There peting narratives as to what inflation is and why it matters, and even whether the U.S. economy is experiencing inflation or not. Inflation is...
Hong Kong high court initiates final stages of Next Digital’s demise
The pany, founded by entrepreneur and pro-democracy advocate Jimmy Lai, is in its death throes, another victim of the draconian National Security Law. Read More… A Hong Kong high court has ordered the winding-up of Jimmy Lai’s prominent pany, Next Digital, following a local government petition. The order came from high court master Jack Wong Kin-tong on Dec. 15. No representatives from Next Digital were present at the hearing and pany submitted no objections, according to South China Morning Post....
Related Classification
Copyright 2023-2026 - www.mreligion.com All Rights Reserved